Last night I attended the Austin Professional Android Developer Meetup at the Capital Factory where @whurley, General Manager at Chaotic Moon Labs spoke on the new Ubuntu Mobile OS technology and its possible impact on the smartphone market. The event was sponsored by tapfire mobile who provided a nice selection of beer.
Picture by Daniel M. Armendariz posted here
The meeting was well attended with about 75 people who engaged with whurley in a 75 minute discussion on the history of phone OS, current status, and future impact of the new Ubuntu mobile OS. Here are some highlights of the discussion in bullet form to simplify your reading experience:
- Android was a free and open response to the close Apple Phone OS allowing an explosion in competition
- Android “by Google”
- Good – Google made lots of money and hired exceptional people to work on the OS
- Bad – Market fragmentation has made it difficult for developers to create a single application to work on various flavors and manufacturer devices; Android is not really open source
- Analyst market numbers on smart phone market are ABSURDELY high and do not reflect the true situation in the market
- Existing market reality (leaders are locked into these markets)
- US and Japan – Apple strongest
- Europe and Asia – Google strongest
- UK – Windows making strong move
- True smart phone market is Apple iPhone vs Samsung Galaxy III
- Mobile gaming is the true moneymaker in the application space for mobile
- Ubuntu Mobile OS
- Not be truly ready for developers until 2014
- Little to no traction at all in the existing marketplace
- Developers are open to create a unique and small ecosystem in a true open source manner
- Mark Shuttleworth, founder of Canonical which makes Ubuntu has good vision and “wants to do what Apple/Microsoft/Google have already done”
- Mozilla has also announced a Firefox Mobile OS but that was not discussed in any detail
- 2014 Predictions
- Apple begin its decline as market leader
- Google – deliver a unified Android version for phone manufacturers
- Windows 8 will stall in market
- Ubuntu – attempt to disrupt the market by playing Google against existing phone manufacturers and carriers
- Perhaps Ubuntu offers carriers more $$ in the application ecosystem
- Fairphone – Interesting project to create a global phone based on social values
So, these are the notes I took last night and I came away with the impression that whurley felt strongly that Ubuntu would make a significant difference in the market and has a real chance to disrupt what looks like a settled market. I am still not sure as I see his points but taking on Google, Apple and even Microsoft at once seems a big stretch for any company. What are your thoughts?
Spector Ramblings 